Gambler's Ruin
Using computer programmes to tackle statistics problems.
The gambler's ruin problem is as follows:
Gambler A and gambler B play a game.
The two gamblers each start with their own set of coins. At each turn they flip one of the coins. If the coin shows heads, gambler A takes a coin from gambler B. If the coin shows tails, gambler B takes a coin from gambler A.
Let there be 100 coins total. Gambler A has N coins and Gambler B has 100 - N coins.
What is the probability that gambler A wins?
This problem can be approached computationally.
Example Run:
The code for this project was written in C++ and is available here.
The programme was run a 1000 times, for N = 50. Gambler A won exactly 49.7% of the time.
What happens if we tweak these figures, say to N = 25?
Interesting ... Gambler A won 24.8% of the time. We can begin to see a pattern forming. The probability that Gambler A wins seems to be given by the number of coins they start with.
Let's try for a few other values of N ...
N | Number of Times Gambler A Wins | Percentage |
---|---|---|
1 | 7 | 0.7% |
5 | 47 | 4.7% |
10 | 97 | 9.7% |
20 | 497 | 49.7% |
75 | 751 | 75.2% |
As we see, the fraction of coins Gambler A starts with initially determines their chance of winning the game.